Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 10.530309 12.080970 13.748936 15.672610 17.825963 20.158033 22.870583
2025-11-02 8.195021 10.286074 12.709460 15.709672 19.307110 23.464025 28.611698
2025-11-09 7.036075 9.359148 12.182820 15.837729 20.410153 25.905772 32.971049
2025-11-16 6.059957 8.503103 11.604783 15.783945 21.213516 27.969283 36.942659
2025-11-23 5.280878 7.770445 11.054810 15.637867 21.789518 29.673550 40.438815
2025-11-30 4.735537 7.276535 10.747438 15.745339 22.650905 31.734643 44.440879
2025-12-07 4.391024 7.015320 10.713272 16.188392 23.948209 34.389950 49.303944
2025-12-14 3.906081 6.493413 10.256020 15.984810 24.312557 35.772925 52.481301
2025-12-21 3.362275 5.822406 9.517149 15.304244 23.933773 36.078444 54.148557
2025-12-28 3.163601 5.666218 9.525471 15.711303 25.127302 38.619330 59.023162
2026-01-04 2.955271 5.471528 9.453509 15.980720 26.115799 40.891078 63.585163
2026-01-11 2.686087 5.147809 9.149269 15.861346 26.497268 42.277054 66.897481
2026-01-18 2.427927 4.822276 8.823045 15.693897 26.808168 43.592161 70.195595
2026-01-25 2.230855 4.584692 8.622185 15.711913 27.403982 45.354308 74.225746
2026-02-01 2.075304 4.405311 8.501955 15.846912 28.179862 47.405841 78.749258
2026-02-08 1.904017 4.178482 8.279876 15.790612 28.633310 48.964030 82.559324
2026-02-15 1.736776 3.941465 8.019102 15.645370 28.922475 50.261547 85.993594
2026-02-22 1.621363 3.794821 7.909027 15.752564 29.632002 52.245187 90.563358
2026-03-01 1.559898 3.751810 7.986428 16.195912 30.930052 55.220805 96.806047
2026-03-08 1.422679 3.535780 7.719016 15.992206 31.091720 56.333710 100.071511
2026-03-15 1.244190 3.210699 7.213696 15.311381 30.372447 55.946208 100.859560
2026-03-22 1.199822 3.178200 7.283657 15.718598 31.610863 58.884202 107.221840
2026-03-29 1.143924 3.113583 7.283218 15.988126 32.607662 61.440349 113.019357